The hospitality sector faces potential challenges due to an ongoing avian influenza (bird flu) outbreak affecting poultry and, more recently, dairy herds. The virus’s spread across the UK, Europe, and parts of the globe has raised concerns about price increases and supply chain disruptions for restaurants and food service businesses.
Confirmed avian flu cases in birds have been reported in 27 European countries, including the UK, with detections at numerous locations since October. This has led to increased biosecurity measures across England, including mandatory housing for birds in specific regions, aimed at controlling the virus’s transmission. The outbreak has significantly impacted egg production, with substantial losses reported at a Shropshire farm, potentially affecting egg availability and market prices.
A developing concern is the virus’s presence in dairy herds in the US. This has prompted testing of raw milk cheese, potentially impacting global dairy markets and the availability and pricing of imported cheese and certain beef products. The connection to beef arises from the practice of culling older dairy cows (over 30 months) which often enter the beef supply chain, typically as lower-quality, high-volume products. A decrease in their availability could influence meat processing.
A human case of avian flu has been confirmed in the UK. Health authorities have emphasised the low risk to the general public, citing the rarity of bird-to-human transmission. However, this case highlights the need for ongoing surveillance and stringent biosecurity protocols.
These combined factors present potential challenges for the hospitality sector, while the possible disruptions to dairy and beef supplies add further complexity. Hospitality businesses will need to remain vigilant, keeping an eye on their sourcing and managing costs carefully, while potentially adjusting menus if the need should arise.
While efforts are underway to manage the outbreak and mitigate its effects, the situation remains dynamic. The agricultural sector is responding to the challenges, but market stability in the short term is not assured. The hospitality sector should prepare for potential price fluctuations and supply chain issues. Flexible menu planning, careful cost control, and close communication with suppliers will be important for navigating this period.
